Locks

NFL (0.75 Unit) Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

The NFL quarterback disaster is so bad that even when we finally get past having to subject ourselves to Desmond Ridder, we end up with Jaren Hall for this game in place of Kirk Cousins. It doesn’t sound like newly-acquired Josh Dobbs will be ready so soon for Minnesota, so that puts the rookie Hall in a tough spot. Rookie quarterbacks who make their first career start in a road game are just 3-15 straight up since 2021. So I’m not expecting the Vikings to win here against an underrated defense and what’s actually an upgrade at QB for Atlanta with Taylor Heinecke starting. Even at a bad number above a field goal, I’ll back the Falcons in this spot.

NFL (1 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Seattle Seahawks +12.5 @ Baltimore Ravens: 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Lamar Jackson is not who you want to be backing as a big home favorite. The Ravens QB is just 3-14 ATS the past 17 times overall that his team has been more than a field goal favorite. And in his career, Lamar is just 12-21 ATS when a favorite of any number. That makes the near-touchdown amount of points attractive to take with Seattle, but I’ll pad those bad ATS stats with an extra 6 points on the tease here.

Buffalo Bills/Cincinnati Bengals Over 44.5: 7:20 PM CT on NBC

One of the top picks I gave out on my podcast this week is the over in this game. But I’m going a safer route by knocking 6 points off because of the primetime unders trend this season. At just below the key NFL totals number of 45, I’m liking the value compared to the now-rare 50-plus total. The Cincinnati offense is finally looking like it’s running full speed behind a healthy Joe Burrow, and should have a great day against a struggling Buffalo defense. But the Bills and Josh Allen will put up plenty here too, and I see no problem with getting to this discounted number.

Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Bills/Bengals 1st Quarter Over 9.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

Last year’s playoff game between these teams saw the Bengals put up 14 themselves in the first quarter. Even the regular season meeting was headed over this number before the Damar Hamlin situation unfolded. These offenses are so efficient, and so good at running their scripted plays early, that I would not be surprised to see both teams open with touchdowns. I see a lot of scoring in general for Sunday Night Football, but particularly early on so jump on this first quarter number.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Green Bay Packers Team Total Under 20.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on FOX

I had higher hopes for this Packers offense under Jordan Love with some solid young talent around him. But they’ve really cratered on that side of the ball after a couple good weeks to start the season. It’s now five straight games under this total for the Pack, and those struggles have come against some very poor and vulnerable opposing defenses. The Rams aren’t anything special defensively, but they’ll be looking to bounce back after the Cowboys torched them, so I see a lower-scoring game overall and certainly from the Green Bay side.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Chicago Bears/New Orleans Saints Over 41 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

Chicago is now 6-2 to the over this season, and has the best over record in the NFL since the start of last season. It’s all thanks to their awful defense, and I think they’ll get torched again today. Not that you’d want to back Derek Carr as a favorite of as many points as the Saints are laying today, but I do trust him offensively right now. His shoulder injury is almost fully healed and the results are apparent on the field, as New Orleans hung 38 on a similarly bad defense last week. But the Saints defense can be thrown on right now, and even Tyson Bagent in garbage time should be able to contribute enough to get over this total.

NFL (0.75 Unit) Tampa Bay Bucs/Houston Texans Under 40 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 12:00 PM CT on CBS

The stats on the Tampa Bay offense are really getting ugly, and they’ve now managed just 14.8 PPG the past five weeks. They’re up against another fairly solid defense today, and the Texans can focus on shutting down Baker Mayfield and his receivers since the Bucs are utterly terrible at running the ball. But Tampa has also had extra time to prepare for rookie quarterback CJ Stroud, who has started coming back to earth after his red-hot start. Combined, the past four games for these teams have averaged 33.6 points and are 6-1-1 under today’s total, so I’m going under again.

Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Houston Texans -2.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)

It’ll be a grind of a game here, probably borderline unwatchable, but I do think the Texans come out on top. After a dud of a game last week that they lost on the final play, Houston should be motivated to get back on track. With the Bucs having so much trouble on offense, I think a slight edge for Houston there will carry them at home.

NFL (0.5 Unit) Carolina Panthers Team Total Over 20.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 3:05 PM CT on CBS

The Colts have the distinction of being the only NFL team to score 20-plus points every game so far this season, quite impressive given the drop-off in offense this year. But it’s come at a cost, as they’ve given up the most points per game in the league. Carolina is not typically an offense you want to back, as Bryce Young’s NFL career has not started strong. But I think the momentum of last week’s first win can carry over here against such an awful defense, especially in a Frank Reich revenge game. This may well be a shootout, or what qualifies as one in the NFL right now, but I’m focused on the Panthers here to exploit the league’s worst defense.

Sunday NFL Prop Bets (Odds via DraftKings)

1 Unit – Mack Hollins Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Mac Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+165)

1 Unit – Raachad White Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Schultz Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.75 Unit — Tyson Bagent Over 173.5 Passing Yards (-110)

1 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 258.5 Passing Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dak Prescott Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-110)

1 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

0.5 Unit – Dalton Kincaid Over 39.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

Tiny Nick is 1576-1424 ATS (+70.1 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage. 

Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.